CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2019-10-25T05:54:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2019 Oct 26 1247 UTC
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SIDC URSIGRAM 91026
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 Oct 2019, 1246UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 26 Oct 2019 until 28 Oct 2019)
SOLAR FLARES  : Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Oct 2019  10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 023
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Oct 2019  10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 Oct 2019  10CM FLUX: 067 / AP: 007
COMMENT: Solar X ray flux remained below B level throughout the period.
There are no active regions on disk and X-ray flux is expected to remain at
background levels.

Form around 9:24UT yesterday October 25 onwards a faint slow CME front is
visible along the southern Solar limb in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images.
It is not believed to be related to the filament eruption reported
yesterday and its origin remains unclear. In STEREO A COR2 data a
corresponding CME is visible from around 6:54 UT onward, directed straight
West as seen from STEREO location. Combining these data it seems likely
that the CME is Earthbound with an expected arrival time around midnight
October 29/30.
No other Earth-directed CME's were detected in coronagraph images.

Solar high energy proton fluxes were at background levels and are expected
to remain so.

Solar wind speed increased at the start of the period to around 670 km/s
before starting a slow gradual decline to current values of 600 km/s. Total
magnetic field was mostly in the 4-6nT range but recently increased to
around 10nT. Bz was variable over the period but tended to be negative this
morning with values down to -6nT and -8.5nT more recently. The phi angle
was firmly in the positive sector.
Solar wind is expected to slowly decline over the next 24-48 hours as the
high speed stream subsides.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (NOAA Kp 3-4, local K Dourbes
2-4) with just recently a minor storming episode (NOAA Kp 5 for the 9-12UT
period).
Active geomagnetic conditions are likely over the next 24-48 hours before
returning to unsettled conditions. Initially, isolated periods of minor
geomagnetic storms are still possible.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 000, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 25 Oct 2019
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 069
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 031
AK WINGST              : 021
ESTIMATED AP           : 026
ESTIMATED ISN          : 000, BASED ON 24 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
NONE
END

BT

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